If there is one piece of advice I could give to those of you who are interested in what will happen November 4th, it would be this:

Don’t pay attention to national polls!!

The Presidency is not decided by the popular vote, as we all learned in the 2000 election.

The second part of my advice would go something like this:

Pay attention to the swing states!!

With that in mind, there are 10 states that fit into this mold for the 2008 election.  They are listed below along with their current weighted polling average aggregation and the percentage likelihood that each state will trend in the current direction.

I have taken my stats on swing states from FiveThirtyEight.com, which is roundly considered to be the top of the Electoral game by both sides of the aisle.  I also consulted with the Princeton Election Consortium as well as CNN Electoral Math.

(The “current polling average” listed below is a weighted aggregation of rolling poll numbers from multiple different polls taken over a period of 3-5 days.)

****

Swing States

Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)
Current Polling Average: Obama +6.2
89% likely Democrat Win (Likely)

Florida (27)
Current Polling Average: Obama +3.3
74% likely Democrat Win (Lean)

Indiana (11)
Current Polling Average: McCain +1.4
62% likely Republican Win (Lean)

Missouri (11)
Current Polling Average: Obama +2.2
64% likely Democrat Win (Lean)

Nevada (5)
Current Polling Average: Obama +3.5
70% likely Democrat Win (Lean)

New Mexico (5)
Current Polling Average: Obama +9
94% likely Democrat Win (Likely)

North Carolina (15)
Current Polling Average: Obama +1.5
63% likely Democrat Win (Lean)

Ohio (20)
Current Polling Average: Obama +3.3
71% likely Democrat Win (Lean)

Pennsylvania (21)
Current Polling Average: Obama +11.4
98% likely Democrat Win (Safe)

Virginia (13)
Current Polling Average: Obama +6.8
93% likely Democrat Win (Likely)

Total Swing State Electoral Votes: 137

****

Listed below are the states that are considered to be safe in each candidate’s column:

****

Safe States

Obama

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Iowa (7)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)

Totals: 238 Electoral Votes, 19 States & D.C.

McCain

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Montana (3)
Mississippi (6)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

Totals: 163 Electoral Votes, 21 States

****

THUS,

There are 538 Electoral Votes and at least 270 are needed to win the Presidency.

Obama has 238 untouchable Electoral Votes.
McCain has 163 untouchable Electoral Votes.

This leaves 137 undecided Electoral Votes (swing states listed above).

Barack Obama needs 32 to win the Presidency.
John McCain needs 107 to win the Presidency.

Obama’s “Plan A” path to the Presidency includes these states:
-    Colorado (9)  Obama +6.2 (89% LIKELY for Dems)
-    New Mexico (5) Obama +9 (94% LIKELY for Dems)
-    Pennsylvania (21) Obama +11.4 (98% SAFE for Dems)
-    Virginia (13) Obama +6.8 (93% LIKELY for Dems)

Obama need only win 3 of these 4 states (or, just PA and VA) to clinch the necessary 32 Electoral Votes.

Obama does NOT need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Indiana or Missouri to break his way to become President if the above scenario happens (VERY likely).

However, Obama is currently leading in all of these “unnecessary” states except for Indiana.

If current polling holds true, Obama will win the Electoral College by a 364-174 margin.

John McCain’s path to the Presidency is perilously thin and almost entirely out of reach.