For years now, scientists have predicted that the world is closing in on peak oil production and will soon start experiencing greater demand than supply can match.
These predictions were based on the diminishing discovery rate of significant new oil fields beginning during the 1970s. Most of the major oil fields that the world is currently using were discovered in the 1960s or shortly thereafter and have an expected lifespan of 50 years before the rate of return begins falling.
In order to allow for supply to meet demand, significant new oil fields must be discovered.. The problem is that there just aren’t any left to find. Major energy companies (read: those based in fossil fuels, most notably oil) have been loathe to talk about this problem and, until recently, have shown only a modicum of interest in alternative energy resources.
This week, Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer sent an email to his employees (later published on Shell’s website) that centered on this question and the forthcoming energy crisis.. the following is an excerpt of his missive:
“..the world’s current predicament limits our room to maneuver. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to rising population and economic development. After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand. [emphasis added]
As a result, we will have no choice but to add other sources of energy – renewables, yes, but also more nuclear power and unconventional fossil fuels such as oil sands. Using more energy inevitably means emitting more CO2 at a time when climate change has become a critical global issue.”
Yep, that’s right folks. A public acknowledgement of peak oil production, the need for renewable energy and the dangers of climate change by the CEO of a major oil company.. If this was a coal mine, our canary would be conducting the New York Philharmonic.
I offer these tidbits of advice with the upmost sincerity:
1) Make sure you own a car that gets at least 30 miles to the gallon.
2) Use alternate transportation when possible (Vespa, Bicycle, Bus Pass, Carpooling, Walking)
When the CEOs of oil companies start to shoot up warning flares about peak oil production and problems with supply/demand, you know things are getting serious. We better act accordingly.
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2001/01/rauch.htm
By: Andy T on January 28, 2008
at 11:42 pm
You’re very right about this.
Now for the hard part: if you’re living in a small town, anywhere between the coasts, or in the South, you’re likely not living in a part of the country where conducting daily life aboard a bicycle is a winning solution.
Sprawling megacities that rely upon cheap/easy freeway-based transportation for millions have led to a much publicized donut hole effect. Our very urban/suburban structure of life would seem to be in peril by the drying up of oil sources (like people have been saying since the 1970s), but as consumers, we’re kind of stuck. I mean, can someone just up and move from their suburban McMansion to a downtown flat just so they can bike to work?
Ultimately, I’d like to think the answer to that is “yeah.” But I can’t imagine people living in the middle of America finding that an easy task.
By: e on January 29, 2008
at 4:33 pm
You’re right, e.
This country should’ve started investing heavily in alternative forms of public transportation about 30 years ago.
I don’t really have any solutions to that problem.
By: themostbrianever on January 30, 2008
at 10:20 pm